← Ligue 2 2023 · Tue, Apr 23, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Taleb
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 38% | 2.59 |
| Annecy win | 34% | 2.82 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.35 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Caen +0 | 52% | 1.86 |
| Annecy +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 50% | 1.93 |
| Over | 50% | 1.94 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 14' | 🟨 | Didí Gaucho · Caen |
| 19' | ⚽ | Ali Abdi · Caen |
| 27' | 🟨 | Yohan Demoncy · Annecy |
| 27' | 🟥 | Vincent Pajot · Annecy |
| 72' | ⚽ | Antoine Larose · Annecy |
| 78' | ⚽ | Romain Thomas · Caen |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 6 |
| 4 | On target | 3 |
| 14 | Corners | 0 |
| 9 | Fouls | 17 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Caen | Annecy |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.39 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.47 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.46 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | Stade Michel d'Ornano |
| coach days | 174.00 | 1088.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 6.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.49 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.62 |
| elo | 1510.67 | 1475.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 6.24 | 43.98 |
| eye test v1 | -0.48 | 0.96 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.01 | 0.25 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.80 | 54.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.76 |
| league points | 53.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 70.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 45.40 |
| rest days | 3.07 | 3.07 |
| scorer concentration | 0.44 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.22 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | -0.81 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 1.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.90 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 7.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.60 |
| squad age | 27.63 | 26.54 |
| state index | -0.01 | 0.68 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.26 | -0.99 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.31 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.40 |