⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Angers SCO 1–3 Amiens

← Ligue 2 2023 · Sat, Mar 16, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Souifi

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Angers SCO win52%1.82
Draw28%3.44
Amiens win20%5.12

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Angers SCO −0.553%1.81
Amiens −0.547%2.08

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under59%1.63
Over41%2.36

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

34'⚽Zinédine Ould Khaled · Angers SCO
59'⚽Mounir Chouiar · Amiens
68'⚽Andy Carroll · Amiens
90'🟨Mohamed Jaouab · Amiens
90'🟨Sébastien Corchia · Amiens
90'⚽Louis Mafouta · Amiens

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
11Shots14
3On target6
3Corners5
13Fouls15
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAngers SCOAmiens
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.280.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.27
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.740.56
cards avg (last 5)1.602.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Raymond Kopa
coach days381.00259.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.05
corner diff avg (last 5)0.601.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.205.40
corners volatility (last 10)1.602.12
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.09
dominance (last 5)0.500.48
elo1551.531451.28
elo momentum (last 5)-37.29-6.48
eye test v1-0.63-0.57
eye trend v10.50-0.14
first sub minute (last 10)61.2061.60
form points (last 5)4.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals for avg (last 5)0.600.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.450.48
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.30
keeper form v10.730.82
league points59.0042.00
league rank2.0011.00
matches since blank0.002.00
matches since clean sheet0.002.00
matches since win1.006.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.8077.80
possession avg (last 5)51.8046.80
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.320.29
season ppg1.901.40
shot diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.60
shots for avg (last 5)10.4010.60
skill v10.56-0.11
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.102.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.003.00
squad age28.2426.19
state index-0.19-0.46
sterile dominance v10.68-0.09
threat rate (last 10)0.210.25
threat rate (last 3)0.240.20
threat rate (last 5)0.200.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.60