⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Concarneau 2–3 Guingamp

← Ligue 2 2023 · Sat, Mar 9, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: M. Leleu

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp win42%2.35
Draw32%3.00
Concarneau win27%3.71

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Concarneau +0.2551%1.92
Guingamp +0.2549%1.97

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under64%1.48
Over36%2.75

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Amine El Ouazzani · Guingamp
41'🟨Kalidou Sidibe · Guingamp
45'🟨Baptiste Roux · Guingamp
55'🟨Jacques Siwe · Guingamp
58'⚽Amine El Ouazzani · Guingamp
66'⚽Isaac Matondo · Concarneau
86'⚽Pape Ibnou Ba · Concarneau
90'⚽Baptiste Guillaume · Guingamp

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
8Shots17
6On target7
3Corners6
9Fouls11
0Yellow cards3
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricConcarneauGuingamp
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.24
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.19
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.430.19
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.620.45
cards avg (last 5)1.202.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Francis-Le Blé
coach days1469.001043.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.00
congestion 21d3.004.00
conversion (last 5)0.160.04
corner diff avg (last 5)2.000.00
corners against avg (last 5)3.005.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.005.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.852.10
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.24
dominance (last 5)0.560.60
elo1475.741499.40
elo momentum (last 5)2.38-20.14
eye test v10.31-0.96
eye trend v10.28-0.03
first sub minute (last 10)63.4063.40
form points (last 5)8.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.400.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.92
h2 goals (last 10)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.15
keeper form v10.660.74
league points40.0044.00
league rank12.006.00
matches since blank5.000.00
matches since clean sheet3.000.00
matches since win3.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)83.0075.20
possession avg (last 5)54.6048.20
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.380.24
season ppg1.331.42
shot diff avg (last 5)2.004.20
shots for avg (last 5)11.0011.20
skill v10.85-0.24
sot against avg (last 5)3.803.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.802.60
squad age27.6826.95
state index-0.00-0.43
sterile dominance v10.840.01
threat rate (last 10)0.190.26
threat rate (last 3)0.200.25
threat rate (last 5)0.200.23
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40