← Ligue 2 2023 · Sat, Mar 2, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Bouille
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Caen win | 38% | 2.56 |
| Pau FC win | 32% | 3.14 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.20 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Pau FC +0.25 | 55% | 1.78 |
| Caen +0.25 | 45% | 2.16 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 56% | 1.71 |
| Over | 44% | 2.20 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 31' | ⚽ | Alexandre Mendy · Caen |
| 61' | 🟨 | Quentin Daubin · Caen |
| 66' | 🟨 | Kouadio Ange Ahoussou · Pau FC |
| 69' | ⚽ | Godson Kyeremeh · Caen |
| 77' | ⚽ | Charles Boli · Pau FC |
| 85' | ⚽ | Amine Salama · Caen |
| 90' | ⚽ | Oumar Ngom · Pau FC |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 7 |
| 8 | On target | 3 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Pau FC | Caen |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| venue | Stade Nouste Camp |
| coach days | 1340.00 | 122.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.20 | 3.23 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1451.79 | 1511.83 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -19.13 | -0.90 |
| eye test v1 | 0.11 | 0.41 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.29 | -0.48 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 61.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| league points | 39.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.20 | 81.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.40 | 54.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 4.93 |
| scorer concentration | 0.24 | 0.43 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.41 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 3.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.20 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.25 | 0.69 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 4.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 27.13 | 26.45 |
| state index | -0.50 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.45 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |