← Ligue 2 2023 · Mon, Feb 5, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: O. Thual
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bastia win | 36% | 2.72 |
| Draw | 35% | 2.75 |
| Ajaccio win | 29% | 3.54 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Ajaccio −0.25 | 56% | 1.73 |
| Bastia −0.25 | 44% | 2.22 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 74% | 1.30 |
| Over | 26% | 3.62 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 29' | 🟨 | Christophe Vincent · Bastia |
| 54' | ⚽ | Migouel Alfarela · Bastia |
| 76' | 🟨 | Christopher Ibayi · Ajaccio |
| 82' | 🟨 | Maxime Chanot · Ajaccio |
| 90' | 🟨 | Florian Bianchini · Bastia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 4 | Shots | 7 |
| 1 | On target | 0 |
| 3 | Corners | 3 |
| 19 | Fouls | 22 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bastia | Ajaccio |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.56 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| venue | Stade Armand-Césari |
| coach days | 35.00 | 1314.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.35 | 0.94 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.19 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1466.25 | 1489.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.97 | -34.03 |
| eye test v1 | -0.40 | -1.11 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.11 | -0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.90 | 60.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.74 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| league points | 28.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.60 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 49.40 | 48.00 |
| rest days | 9.07 | 9.07 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.56 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 6.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | -0.05 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 2.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.30 | 2.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 26.54 | 30.20 |
| state index | -0.40 | -0.71 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.36 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.15 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.17 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.13 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.00 |