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Guingamp 1–4 Annecy

← Ligue 2 2023 · Sat, Feb 3, 06:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Bouille

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp win65%1.48
Draw23%4.20
Annecy win12%8.64

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp −154%1.82
Annecy −146%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.76
Over45%2.12

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

16'🟥Donatien Gomis · Guingamp
18'⚽ (pen)Kapitbafan Djoco · Annecy
27'🟨Kapitbafan Djoco · Annecy
31'⚽Ousmane Camara · Annecy
39'🟨Vincent Pajot · Annecy
42'⚽Amine El Ouazzani · Guingamp
54'🟨Michel Diaz · Annecy
74'⚽Samuel Ntamack Ndimba · Annecy
78'🟨Kalidou Sidibe · Guingamp
79'🟥Kalidou Sidibe · Guingamp
82'🟨Brian Beyer · Annecy
87'⚽Samuel Ntamack Ndimba · Annecy

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score2
16Shots8
6On target4
3Corners2
10Fouls19
1Yellow cards4
2Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGuingampAnnecy
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.290.31
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.370.30
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.290.37
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.20
box share (last 5)0.630.50
cards avg (last 5)1.402.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Roudourou
coach days1008.001008.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.04
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.004.20
corners for avg (last 5)3.203.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.021.16
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.08
dominance (last 5)0.630.35
elo1545.671417.71
elo momentum (last 5)12.59-32.76
eye test v1-0.11-0.77
eye trend v10.15-0.33
first sub minute (last 10)63.4055.90
form points (last 5)8.001.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.20-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.200.40
goals volatility (last 10)1.100.67
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.30
keeper form v1—0.69
league points39.0024.00
league rank5.0019.00
matches since blank4.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win2.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4070.00
possession avg (last 5)49.6042.40
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.220.24
season ppg1.561.00
shot diff avg (last 5)6.80-6.40
shots for avg (last 5)14.408.40
skill v1-0.09-1.14
sot against avg (last 5)2.604.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.503.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.20
state index0.10-1.14
sterile dominance v1-0.34-0.27
threat rate (last 10)0.270.26
threat rate (last 3)0.220.17
threat rate (last 5)0.280.19
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.20