⚽ Tomulator
Overview
◈Dashboard📅Today's games◎State of play
Money
💷Bets & strategies
Explore
⊞Leagues & seasons📐Metrics▤Data sources
Engine room
🎲Simulations🧪Lab≣Catalog?How this works

Guingamp 3–3 Rodez

← Ligue 2 2023 · Tue, Jan 23, 07:45 PM UTC · ref: A. Kherradji

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp win52%1.81
Draw27%3.58
Rodez win20%4.92

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp −0.553%1.80
Rodez −0.547%2.09

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under55%1.76
Over45%2.13

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

1'⚽Hugo Picard · Guingamp
3'⚽Andreas Hountondji · Rodez
8'⚽Andreas Hountondji · Rodez
26'⚽Amadou Sagna · Guingamp
31'⚽Baptiste Guillaume · Guingamp
45'⚽ (pen)Bradley Danger · Rodez
56'🟨Amadou Sagna · Guingamp
68'🟨Serge-Philippe Raux-Yao · Rodez

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

3Half-time score3
16Shots9
5On target5
5Corners4
12Fouls16
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricGuingampRodez
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.280.32
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.340.33
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.00
box share (last 5)0.640.65
cards avg (last 5)1.402.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Roudourou
coach days997.00418.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.060.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.202.00
corners against avg (last 5)4.604.40
corners for avg (last 5)4.406.40
corners volatility (last 10)3.022.68
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.12
dominance (last 5)0.660.58
elo1544.391482.75
elo momentum (last 5)16.0819.13
eye test v10.090.53
eye trend v10.270.08
first sub minute (last 10)58.0064.30
form points (last 5)9.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.990.82
h2 goals (last 10)0.600.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.700.30
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.20
keeper form v10.710.60
league points37.0033.00
league rank5.009.00
matches since blank2.003.00
matches since clean sheet0.004.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)75.0074.40
possession avg (last 5)48.8044.40
rest days10.0710.07
scorer concentration0.260.20
season ppg1.611.50
shot diff avg (last 5)7.004.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.0014.80
skill v1-0.22-0.56
sot against avg (last 5)1.803.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.404.30
sot for avg (last 3)4.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)4.205.00
squad age27.5224.43
state index0.360.16
sterile dominance v1-0.42-1.24
threat rate (last 10)0.260.29
threat rate (last 3)0.320.31
threat rate (last 5)0.280.36
venue ppg (last 5)1.000.60