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Valenciennes 2–2 Caen

← Ligue 2 2023 · Sat, Oct 28, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: K. Abed

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Caen win36%2.74
Valenciennes win34%2.91
Draw30%3.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Caen +052%1.88
Valenciennes +048%2.00

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.69
Over43%2.24

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

8'⚽Makabi Lilepo · Valenciennes
29'⚽Ilyes Hamache · Valenciennes
53'🟨Quentin Daubin · Caen
61'🟨Emmanuel Ntim · Caen
87'⚽Mickaël Le Bihan · Caen
90'⚽Ali Abdi · Caen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
9Shots14
4On target4
5Corners7
14Fouls8
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricValenciennesCaen
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.440.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.20
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.10
box share (last 5)0.630.62
cards avg (last 5)2.001.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade du Hainaut
coach days27.00149.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.070.13
corner diff avg (last 5)1.20-0.60
corners against avg (last 5)3.605.20
corners for avg (last 5)4.804.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.942.27
defensive leak (last 5)0.130.13
dominance (last 5)0.530.37
elo1418.471505.34
elo momentum (last 5)-10.15-34.05
eye test v10.16-1.28
eye trend v10.490.07
first sub minute (last 10)55.8051.20
form points (last 5)3.002.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.40-0.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.402.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.97
h2 goals (last 10)0.400.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.35
keeper form v10.760.70
league points9.0014.00
league rank19.0014.00
matches since blank3.003.00
matches since clean sheet5.007.00
matches since win8.007.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.8076.60
possession avg (last 5)50.0046.20
rest days7.007.17
scorer concentration0.330.46
season ppg0.751.27
shot diff avg (last 5)2.00-6.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.008.80
skill v10.37-0.24
sot against avg (last 5)4.806.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.502.90
sot for avg (last 3)5.332.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.201.80
squad age24.3628.64
state index-0.76-0.77
sterile dominance v10.050.18
threat rate (last 10)0.230.22
threat rate (last 3)0.250.22
threat rate (last 5)0.260.20
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.40