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Bastia 1–4 Pau FC

← Ligue 2 2023 · Tue, Sep 26, 06:45 PM UTC · ref: K. Abed

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bastia win54%1.79
Draw26%3.70
Pau FC win20%4.79

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Pau FC −0.7553%1.85
Bastia −0.7547%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under53%1.84
Over47%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

27'⚽Henri Saivet · Pau FC
39'🟥Benjamin Santelli · Bastia
40'🟨Therence Koudou · Pau FC
48'🟨Anthony Roncaglia · Bastia
54'⚽Mons Bassouamina · Pau FC
62'⚽Facinet Conte · Bastia
79'⚽Henri Saivet · Pau FC
80'🟨Jean Ruiz · Pau FC
82'⚽Yonis Njoh · Pau FC
85'🟨Julien Maggiotti · Bastia
85'🟨Yonis Njoh · Pau FC

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score1
10Shots17
2On target10
10Corners3
7Fouls12
2Yellow cards3
1Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricBastiaPau FC
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.320.46
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.270.43
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.280.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.660.68
cards avg (last 5)2.003.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Armand-Césari
coach days725.001182.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.100.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.15
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.80-2.40
corners against avg (last 5)5.406.00
corners for avg (last 5)4.603.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.641.97
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.14
dominance (last 5)0.480.38
elo1504.881427.22
elo momentum (last 5)-21.93-15.01
eye test v1-0.28-0.20
eye trend v1-0.34-0.19
first sub minute (last 10)62.8037.30
form points (last 5)7.005.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.60-1.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.802.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.341.18
h2 goals (last 10)1.200.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.40
keeper form v10.580.70
league points11.008.00
league rank10.0015.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet2.004.00
matches since win3.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)79.4078.00
possession avg (last 5)51.2048.20
rest days3.073.07
scorer concentration0.290.33
season ppg1.381.14
shot diff avg (last 5)-0.80-7.40
shots for avg (last 5)12.6010.00
skill v10.330.01
sot against avg (last 5)5.206.60
sot for avg (last 10)3.904.00
sot for avg (last 3)2.333.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.80
squad age26.7327.33
state index-0.34-0.80
sterile dominance v10.150.31
threat rate (last 10)0.250.21
threat rate (last 3)0.200.19
threat rate (last 5)0.250.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.00