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Paris FC 3–0 Amiens

← Ligue 2 2023 · Sat, Sep 16, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: A. Taleb

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amiens win36%2.78
Paris FC win35%2.77
Draw30%3.20

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amiens +050%1.94
Paris FC +050%1.94

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under56%1.72
Over44%2.19

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

14'⚽Josias Lukembila · Paris FC
24'🟨Abdoul Tapsoba · Amiens
37'🟨Mohamed Touré · Paris FC
43'⚽ (pen)Mohamed Touré · Paris FC
51'🟨Ilan Kebbal · Paris FC
62'⚽Alimami Gory · Paris FC
75'🟨Kylian Kaiboue · Amiens

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
12Shots13
3On target3
3Corners8
11Fouls17
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricParis FCAmiens
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.380.39
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.530.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.000.05
box share (last 5)0.800.58
cards avg (last 5)2.001.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade de l'Aube
coach days107.0077.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.050.16
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.602.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.004.00
corners for avg (last 5)3.406.60
corners volatility (last 10)1.843.59
defensive leak (last 5)0.150.06
dominance (last 5)0.380.45
elo1473.171471.63
elo momentum (last 5)-44.8244.52
eye test v10.02-0.37
eye trend v10.290.33
first sub minute (last 10)49.7058.00
form points (last 5)3.0012.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.000.80
goals against avg (last 5)1.600.80
goals for avg (last 5)0.601.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.25
h2 goals (last 10)0.601.10
h2h win rate (last 5)0.900.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.200.10
keeper form v10.68—
league points3.0015.00
league rank19.001.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)88.0073.80
possession avg (last 5)52.0043.00
rest days14.0014.00
scorer concentration—0.38
season ppg0.602.50
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.00-1.80
shots for avg (last 5)8.2010.40
skill v11.13-0.69
sot against avg (last 5)4.603.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.303.90
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.00
sot for avg (last 5)3.403.60
squad age25.7927.72
state index-0.570.44
sterile dominance v11.28-0.46
threat rate (last 10)0.160.24
threat rate (last 3)0.220.30
threat rate (last 5)0.150.24
venue ppg (last 5)2.401.80