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Amiens 4–1 Guingamp

← Ligue 2 2023 · Sat, Sep 2, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: B. Lepaysant

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amiens win41%2.40
Draw30%3.30
Guingamp win30%3.37

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Guingamp −0.2552%1.86
Amiens −0.2548%2.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.68
Over43%2.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'🟨Gaël Kakuta · Amiens
13'🟨Baptiste Guillaume · Guingamp
40'⚽Amine El Ouazzani · Guingamp
42'⚽Antoine Leautey · Amiens
52'🟨Dylan Louiserre · Guingamp
62'🟨Kalidou Sidibe · Guingamp
77'⚽Louis Mafouta · Amiens
78'🟨Enzo Basilio · Guingamp
81'⚽Gaël Kakuta · Amiens
90'⚽Louis Mafouta · Amiens

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
11Shots12
7On target4
2Corners4
16Fouls15
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAmiensGuingamp
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.330.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.230.36
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.300.41
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.580.60
cards avg (last 5)1.202.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne
coach days63.00854.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.120.12
corner diff avg (last 5)4.401.80
corners against avg (last 5)3.602.80
corners for avg (last 5)8.004.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.502.26
defensive leak (last 5)0.060.04
dominance (last 5)0.410.54
elo1453.931517.91
elo momentum (last 5)36.1030.34
eye test v1-0.730.69
eye trend v10.07-0.16
first sub minute (last 10)57.8057.80
form points (last 5)12.0010.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.401.60
goals against avg (last 5)0.600.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.002.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.061.45
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.20
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.100.40
keeper form v10.720.86
league points12.007.00
league rank1.009.00
matches since blank0.001.00
matches since clean sheet2.000.00
matches since win1.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.6077.80
possession avg (last 5)43.2049.00
rest days7.177.00
scorer concentration—0.25
season ppg2.401.75
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.803.20
shots for avg (last 5)9.6014.40
skill v1-0.610.05
sot against avg (last 5)4.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.305.10
sot for avg (last 3)3.005.00
sot for avg (last 5)2.805.60
squad age27.5326.59
state index0.110.65
sterile dominance v1-0.28-0.36
threat rate (last 10)0.230.30
threat rate (last 3)0.300.30
threat rate (last 5)0.230.29
venue ppg (last 5)1.802.00