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Amiens 2–1 Bastia

← Ligue 2 2023 · Sat, Aug 19, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Legat

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Amiens win41%2.44
Draw30%3.20
Bastia win29%3.31

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Bastia −0.2551%1.95
Amiens −0.2549%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Under57%1.68
Over43%2.26

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

13'🟨Amadou Ciss · Amiens
28'🟨Kapitbafan Djoco · Bastia
36'⚽Louis Mafouta · Amiens
44'⚽Issiar Drame · Bastia
45'🟨Kylian Kaiboue · Amiens
48'⚽Jeremy Gelin · Amiens
85'🟨Louis Mafouta · Amiens
85'🟨Tom Ducrocq · Bastia
90'🟥Johny Placide · Bastia

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
17Shots11
6On target4
12Corners2
9Fouls17
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards1

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricAmiensBastia
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.320.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.35
blown lead rate (last 20)0.050.05
box share (last 5)0.560.45
cards avg (last 5)0.802.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueStade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne
coach days49.00687.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.170.19
corner diff avg (last 5)0.201.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.404.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.605.40
corners volatility (last 10)2.912.02
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.13
dominance (last 5)0.370.59
elo1451.441537.56
elo momentum (last 5)40.6222.10
eye test v1-0.68-0.06
eye trend v1-0.15-0.15
first sub minute (last 10)56.6060.00
form points (last 5)12.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.801.20
goals against avg (last 5)0.601.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.402.40
goals volatility (last 10)0.951.70
h2 goals (last 10)0.801.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.150.30
keeper form v10.710.61
matches since blank7.001.00
matches since clean sheet0.000.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)74.8075.00
possession avg (last 5)43.8047.80
rest days7.007.00
season ppg3.002.00
shot diff avg (last 5)-6.202.80
shots for avg (last 5)8.4011.40
skill v1-0.55-0.27
sot against avg (last 5)4.403.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.104.30
sot for avg (last 3)2.003.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.004.40
squad age27.5727.68
state index0.180.44
sterile dominance v1-0.00-0.14
threat rate (last 10)0.200.25
threat rate (last 3)0.150.23
threat rate (last 5)0.200.24
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.00