← Ligue 2 2023 · Sat, Aug 12, 05:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Lissorgue
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Bastia win | 55% | 1.74 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.53 |
| Valenciennes win | 18% | 5.59 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Valenciennes −0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Bastia −0.75 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Under | 59% | 1.64 |
| Over | 41% | 2.34 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | ⚽ | Dimitri Liénard · Bastia |
| 51' | 🟨 | Julien Masson · Valenciennes |
| 77' | ⚽ | Benjamin Santelli · Bastia |
| 82' | 🟨 | Allan Linguet · Valenciennes |
| 90' | ⚽ | Christophe Vincent · Bastia |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 15 | Shots | 3 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 13 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bastia | Valenciennes |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.52 | 0.43 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| venue | Stade Armand-Césari |
| coach days | 680.00 | 133.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.02 | 2.12 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.42 |
| elo | 1527.68 | 1425.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 16.37 | 10.18 |
| eye test v1 | -0.03 | -0.22 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.47 | 0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.70 | 58.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.77 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.15 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.58 | 0.62 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 74.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 43.20 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | -0.64 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 28.47 | 25.89 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.38 | -0.51 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |