← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, May 19, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Alt
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 53% | 1.79 |
| VfL Osnabruck win | 24% | 4.20 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.54 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| VfL Osnabruck +0.75 | 51% | 1.90 |
| Hertha +0.75 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 74% | 1.31 |
| Under | 26% | 3.72 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | ⚽ | Pálko Dárdai · Hertha |
| 44' | ⚽ | Niklas Wiemann · VfL Osnabruck |
| 54' | 🟨 | Fabian Reese · Hertha |
| 63' | 🟨 | Jonjoe Kenny · Hertha |
| 70' | 🟨 | Tony Rölke · Hertha |
| 75' | 🟨 | Linus Gechter · Hertha |
| 76' | ⚽ | Charalambos Makridis · VfL Osnabruck |
| 87' | 🟨 | Robert Tesche · VfL Osnabruck |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 14 | Shots | 15 |
| 4 | On target | 5 |
| 7 | Corners | 5 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | VfL Osnabruck | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.70 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |
| venue | Bremer Brücke |
| coach days | 200.00 | 414.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | -2.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1323.85 | 1541.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -33.64 | -36.38 |
| eye test v1 | -0.53 | 0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.20 | -0.53 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.10 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.60 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.64 |
| league points | 25.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.80 | 50.00 |
| rest days | 7.08 | 8.10 |
| scorer concentration | 0.39 | 0.30 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.80 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.20 | 15.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.11 | 0.56 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 2.60 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.60 |
| squad age | 28.85 | 24.83 |
| state index | -1.45 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | -0.20 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.17 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |