← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, May 19, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: H. Osmers
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hansa Rostock win | 42% | 2.25 |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 33% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 25% | 4.11 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.25 | 50% | 1.93 |
| Hansa Rostock −0.25 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 1.46 |
| Under | 35% | 2.79 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 48' | ⚽ | Nils Fröling · Hansa Rostock |
| 72' | ⚽ | Felix Platte · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 83' | 🟨 | Visar Musliu · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 87' | 🟨 | Sebastian Vasiliadis · Hansa Rostock |
| 87' | ⚽ | Adriano Grimaldi · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 16 | Shots | 13 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 1 | Corners | 6 |
| 14 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hansa Rostock | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.43 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.77 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 |
| venue | Ostseestadion |
| 2.20 |
| coach days | 445.00 | 1053.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 1.70 | 2.41 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.53 |
| elo | 1371.53 | 1530.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -38.41 | 38.97 |
| eye test v1 | -0.27 | 0.43 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.59 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.30 | 61.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.67 | 0.63 |
| league points | 37.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 7.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 71.00 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.60 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 8.10 | 8.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.49 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 1.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.20 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.97 | 0.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 28.12 | 25.01 |
| state index | -1.12 | 0.58 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.76 | -0.44 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |