← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, May 19, 01:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Sather
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hannover win | 47% | 2.02 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 29% | 3.40 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.04 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hannover −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| Holstein Kiel −0.25 | 47% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 68% | 1.40 |
| Under | 32% | 3.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 26' | ⚽ | Lewis Holtby · Holstein Kiel |
| 28' | 🟨 | Enzo Leopold · Hannover |
| 32' | ⚽ | Tom Rothe · Holstein Kiel |
| 33' | 🟨 | Patrick Erras · Holstein Kiel |
| 78' | ⚽ | Louis Schaub · Hannover |
| 81' | 🟨 | Marko Ivezić · Holstein Kiel |
| 89' | 🟨 | Phil Neumann · Hannover |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 26 | Shots | 12 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 10 | Corners | 3 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hannover | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.57 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.40 |
| venue | Heinz von Heiden-Arena |
| coach days | 688.00 | 961.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -4.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 7.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 3.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.26 | 2.46 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1538.90 | 1611.96 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 14.91 | -4.08 |
| eye test v1 | 0.47 | 0.30 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.07 | -0.22 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.10 | 49.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.76 | 0.85 |
| league points | 54.00 | 69.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 77.00 | 78.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.00 | 49.40 |
| rest days | 7.08 | 7.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.14 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.97 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.80 | -3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.80 | 11.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.11 | 0.14 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 5.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.57 | 25.93 |
| state index | 0.28 | 0.53 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.71 | 0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 3.00 |