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Karlsruhe 1–2 Hannover

← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, May 12, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: N. Winter

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe win44%2.20
Hannover win32%3.01
Draw24%4.04

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover −0.2550%1.95
Karlsruhe −0.2550%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over68%1.41
Under32%3.03

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

19'⚽Andreas Voglsammer · Hannover
29'🟨Fabian Kunze · Hannover
32'🟨Philip Heise · Karlsruhe
38'🟨Marcel Franke · Karlsruhe
44'⚽Paul Nebel · Karlsruhe
54'🟨Lars Stindl · Karlsruhe
65'⚽Marcel Halstenberg · Hannover
83'🟨Jérôme Gondorf · Karlsruhe
83'🟨Budu Zivzivadze · Karlsruhe
90'🟨Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe
90'🟨Sei Muroya

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
17Shots14
7On target4
8Corners6
16Fouls13
6Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKarlsruheHannover
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.420.32
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.360.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.720.57
cards avg (last 5)1.601.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBBBank Wildpark
· Hannover
coach days1562.00681.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.150.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-1.603.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.603.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.007.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.722.35
defensive leak (last 5)0.070.12
dominance (last 5)0.510.56
elo1574.391525.87
elo momentum (last 5)35.28-0.95
eye test v10.410.32
eye trend v1-0.570.17
first sub minute (last 10)65.5054.00
form points (last 5)13.006.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.800.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)1.801.20
goals volatility (last 10)2.171.06
h2 goals (last 10)1.400.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.25
keeper form v1—0.74
league points55.0051.00
league rank5.007.00
matches since blank5.003.00
matches since clean sheet1.003.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2076.20
possession avg (last 5)50.2051.00
rest days8.027.00
scorer concentration0.240.16
season ppg1.671.50
shot diff avg (last 5)0.403.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.6014.20
skill v10.320.02
sot against avg (last 5)4.604.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.905.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.675.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.804.80
squad age27.9827.03
state index0.700.05
sterile dominance v1-0.09-0.32
threat rate (last 10)0.310.31
threat rate (last 3)0.280.36
threat rate (last 5)0.280.29
venue ppg (last 5)2.601.20