← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, May 12, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Petersen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 80% | 1.20 |
| Draw | 13% | 7.50 |
| VfL Osnabruck win | 7% | 13.80 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 −2 | 50% | 1.93 |
| VfL Osnabruck −2 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 67% | 1.42 |
| Under | 33% | 2.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | ⚽ | Oladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 15' | 🟨 | Eric Smith · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 58' | ⚽ | Oladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 68' | ⚽ | Marcel Hartel · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Adam Dźwigała · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Lars Kehl · VfL Osnabruck |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 3 |
| 7 | On target | 1 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 2 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC St. Pauli 1910 | VfL Osnabruck |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.57 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Millerntor-Stadion |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 528.00 | 193.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.05 | 1.49 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.44 |
| elo | 1621.74 | 1327.30 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -29.59 | -12.55 |
| eye test v1 | 0.00 | -0.32 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.22 | 0.37 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 64.60 | 56.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.67 |
| league points | 66.00 | 25.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 84.80 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 4.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 0.74 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -2.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.80 | 11.00 |
| skill v1 | 1.44 | -0.19 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 6.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.20 | 2.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.60 |
| squad age | 27.01 | 27.22 |
| state index | -0.01 | -1.04 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.40 | -0.08 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.21 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.17 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |