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FC St. Pauli 1910 3–1 VfL Osnabruck

← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, May 12, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: M. Petersen

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC St. Pauli 1910 win80%1.20
Draw13%7.50
VfL Osnabruck win7%13.80

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
FC St. Pauli 1910 −250%1.93
VfL Osnabruck −250%1.95

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over67%1.42
Under33%2.96

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Oladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli 1910
15'🟨Eric Smith · FC St. Pauli 1910
58'⚽Oladapo Afolayan · FC St. Pauli 1910
68'⚽Marcel Hartel · FC St. Pauli 1910
90'🟨Adam Dźwigała · FC St. Pauli 1910
90'⚽ (pen)Lars Kehl · VfL Osnabruck

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score0
19Shots3
7On target1
4Corners3
11Fouls2
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricFC St. Pauli 1910VfL Osnabruck
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.350.38
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.350.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.150.00
box share (last 5)0.720.57
cards avg (last 5)2.20
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueMillerntor-Stadion
2.00
coach days528.00193.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d3.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.130.08
corner diff avg (last 5)0.20-1.20
corners against avg (last 5)4.005.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.204.60
corners volatility (last 10)3.051.49
defensive leak (last 5)0.120.18
dominance (last 5)0.480.44
elo1621.741327.30
elo momentum (last 5)-29.59-12.55
eye test v10.00-0.32
eye trend v1-0.220.37
first sub minute (last 10)64.6056.00
form points (last 5)6.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.20-1.80
goals against avg (last 5)2.002.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals volatility (last 10)0.950.88
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.40
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.600.10
keeper form v1—0.67
league points66.0025.00
league rank2.0019.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.004.00
matches since win1.004.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.8077.60
possession avg (last 5)61.4045.80
rest days8.794.79
scorer concentration0.250.39
season ppg1.940.74
shot diff avg (last 5)-1.00-2.80
shots for avg (last 5)11.8011.00
skill v11.44-0.19
sot against avg (last 5)6.806.60
sot for avg (last 10)4.202.90
sot for avg (last 3)3.004.33
sot for avg (last 5)4.003.60
squad age27.0127.22
state index-0.01-1.04
sterile dominance v11.40-0.08
threat rate (last 10)0.210.19
threat rate (last 3)0.170.25
threat rate (last 5)0.180.23
venue ppg (last 5)1.801.40