← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, May 11, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 37% | 2.60 |
| Fortuna Dusseldorf win | 37% | 2.60 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.77 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Dusseldorf +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Holstein Kiel +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 56% | 1.72 |
| Under | 44% | 2.21 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Benedikt Pichler · Holstein Kiel |
| 42' | 🟨 | Philipp Sander · Holstein Kiel |
| 70' | ⚽ (pen) | Christos Tzolis · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 73' | 🟨 | Yannik Engelhardt · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 90' | 🟨 | Andre Hoffmann · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
| 90' | 🟨 | Emmanuel Iyoha · Fortuna Dusseldorf |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 8 | Shots | 19 |
| 2 | On target | 6 |
| 2 | Corners | 13 |
| 12 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | Fortuna Dusseldorf |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.38 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.41 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 953.00 | 830.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 1.16 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1613.03 | 1635.60 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 11.70 | 22.92 |
| eye test v1 | 0.94 | 0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | 0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 47.90 | 60.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 12.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.15 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.77 |
| league points | 68.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.80 | 85.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 56.00 | 52.80 |
| rest days | 6.29 | 8.08 |
| scorer concentration | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 2.00 | 1.85 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.40 | 16.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.83 | 0.90 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.60 | 5.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 26.17 | 26.12 |
| state index | 0.70 | 0.92 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.31 | 0.18 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |