← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, May 5, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Kampka
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hannover win | 47% | 2.07 |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 28% | 3.40 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.93 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.5 | 53% | 1.84 |
| Hannover −0.5 | 47% | 2.08 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.54 |
| Under | 37% | 2.64 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Lars Gindorf · Hannover |
| 10' | ⚽ | Andreas Voglsammer · Hannover |
| 18' | ⚽ | Nicolò Tresoldi · Hannover |
| 27' | ⚽ | Koen Kostons · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 34' | 🟨 | Martin Ens · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 40' | ⚽ | Raphael Obermair · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 50' | 🟨 | Fabian Kunze · Hannover |
| 70' | 🟨 | Phil Neumann · Hannover |
| 77' | 🟨 | Visar Musliu · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 82' | 🟨 | Sirlord Conteh · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 19 | Shots | 19 |
| 6 | On target | 10 |
| 5 | Corners | 4 |
| 16 | Fouls | 7 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hannover | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.76 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| venue | Heinz von Heiden-Arena |
| coach days | 674.00 | 1039.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 6.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.32 | 3.11 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.58 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1517.28 | 1527.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.18 | 26.75 |
| eye test v1 | 0.58 | 0.54 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.07 | 0.03 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.70 | 59.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| league points | 48.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 74.80 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.00 | 45.80 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 8.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.48 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.17 | 0.24 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 26.97 | 25.69 |
| state index | 0.04 | 0.46 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.59 | -0.55 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |