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Kaiserslautern 4–1 Magdeburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, May 4, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Ittrich

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kaiserslautern win47%2.06
Magdeburg win27%3.58
Draw25%3.80

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Magdeburg −0.553%1.85
Kaiserslautern −0.547%2.07

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over59%1.63
Under41%2.37

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

15'⚽Daniel Hanslik · Kaiserslautern
20'⚽Daniel Hanslik · Kaiserslautern
45'🟨Tobias Müller · Magdeburg
49'🟨Filip Kaloč · Kaiserslautern
53'🟨Tymoteusz Puchacz · Kaiserslautern
57'⚽Kenny Prince Redondo · Kaiserslautern
75'🟨Daniel Hanslik · Kaiserslautern
79'⚽Daniel Heber · Magdeburg
82'🟨Bryan Silva Teixeira · Magdeburg
83'⚽Jan Elvedi · Kaiserslautern

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
11Shots11
6On target5
3Corners8
10Fouls15
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKaiserslauternMagdeburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.340.34
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.310.46
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.240.39
blown lead rate (last 20)0.350.15
box share (last 5)0.690.63
cards avg (last 5)1.401.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueFritz-Walter-Stadion
coach days93.001188.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.08
corner diff avg (last 5)0.80-2.00
corners against avg (last 5)5.006.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.804.00
corners volatility (last 10)2.462.67
defensive leak (last 5)0.160.06
dominance (last 5)0.530.47
elo1432.271453.98
elo momentum (last 5)1.6115.89
eye test v1-0.060.31
eye trend v1-0.200.56
first sub minute (last 10)61.4057.70
form points (last 5)4.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.400.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.800.60
goals for avg (last 5)1.401.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.081.14
h2 goals (last 10)0.700.10
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.25
keeper form v10.680.70
league points36.0038.00
league rank17.0014.00
matches since blank8.003.00
matches since clean sheet7.001.00
matches since win0.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)73.8082.00
possession avg (last 5)41.4055.80
rest days7.316.29
scorer concentration0.360.16
season ppg1.091.15
shot diff avg (last 5)1.80-2.40
shots for avg (last 5)13.8012.40
skill v1-0.810.83
sot against avg (last 5)5.405.00
sot for avg (last 10)4.704.00
sot for avg (last 3)4.335.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.80
squad age26.5927.40
state index-0.30-0.03
sterile dominance v1-1.490.71
threat rate (last 10)0.340.20
threat rate (last 3)0.340.22
threat rate (last 5)0.370.22
venue ppg (last 5)0.801.20