← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, May 4, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: F. Badstübner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 40% | 2.45 |
| Hansa Rostock win | 33% | 2.92 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.68 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hansa Rostock +0.25 | 54% | 1.83 |
| Karlsruhe +0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under | 47% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 33' | ⚽ | Nico Neidhart · Hansa Rostock |
| 52' | ⚽ | Budu Zivzivadze · Karlsruhe |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe |
| 59' | 🟨 | Jonas David · Hansa Rostock |
| 74' | 🟨 | Damian Roßbach · Hansa Rostock |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 16 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 2 | Corners | 3 |
| 20 | Fouls | 17 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hansa Rostock | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.40 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.80 |
| venue | Ostseestadion |
| coach days | 430.00 | 1554.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.04 | 0.13 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.13 | 2.60 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.06 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1382.88 | 1567.84 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.30 | 28.92 |
| eye test v1 | -0.44 | 0.39 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.45 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.60 | 63.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 2.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.69 | 0.82 |
| league points | 37.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.20 | 80.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 47.80 | 49.60 |
| rest days | 7.77 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| season ppg | 1.12 | 1.63 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 11.60 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.19 | 0.26 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.30 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 26.85 | 28.87 |
| state index | -0.76 | 0.47 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.15 | -0.04 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |