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SV Wehen 3–5 Greuther Furth

← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, Apr 28, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: P. Ittrich

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Wehen win48%2.01
Greuther Furth win27%3.66
Draw26%3.78

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Greuther Furth −0.552%1.88
SV Wehen −0.548%2.02

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.71
Under44%2.23

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

3'⚽Ivan Prtajin · SV Wehen
7'🟨Marcus Mathisen · SV Wehen
15'🟨Philipp Muller · Greuther Furth
18'⚽Nikolas Agrafiotis · SV Wehen
26'⚽Branimir Hrgota · Greuther Furth
38'⚽Armindo Sieb · Greuther Furth
43'⚽Armindo Sieb · Greuther Furth
56'🟨Simon Asta · Greuther Furth
65'🟨Aleksandar Vukotić · SV Wehen
70'🟨Oualid Mhamdi · Greuther Furth
72'⚽ (pen)

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score3
18Shots16
10On target7
8Corners5
17Fouls7
3Yellow cards4
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSV WehenGreuther Furth
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.37
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.34
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.360.30
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.05
box share (last 5)0.590.41
cards avg (last 5)2.402.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBRITA-Arena
Ivan Prtajin
· SV Wehen
83'⚽Lukas Petkov · Greuther Furth
90'🟨Emanuel Taffertshofer · SV Wehen
90'🟨Jonas Urbig · Greuther Furth
90'⚽Branimir Hrgota · Greuther Furth
coach days27.00667.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.05
congestion 21d2.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.040.09
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.200.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.804.40
corners for avg (last 5)5.605.00
corners volatility (last 10)3.163.57
defensive leak (last 5)0.180.13
dominance (last 5)0.480.49
elo1418.851447.63
elo momentum (last 5)-46.76-22.71
eye test v1-0.10-0.36
eye trend v1-0.07-0.15
first sub minute (last 10)54.4054.40
form points (last 5)1.004.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-1.60-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals for avg (last 5)0.400.60
goals volatility (last 10)1.150.79
h2 goals (last 10)0.500.60
h2h win rate (last 5)0.200.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.250.30
keeper form v10.570.66
league points35.0043.00
league rank18.009.00
matches since blank1.000.00
matches since clean sheet6.0013.00
matches since win6.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)77.4084.40
possession avg (last 5)47.0057.00
rest days8.028.02
scorer concentration0.330.24
season ppg1.091.34
shot diff avg (last 5)0.80-0.20
shots for avg (last 5)12.6010.80
skill v1-0.131.12
sot against avg (last 5)3.804.00
sot for avg (last 10)3.604.40
sot for avg (last 3)3.673.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.803.20
squad age27.4124.59
state index-1.19-0.67
sterile dominance v1-0.201.08
threat rate (last 10)0.240.20
threat rate (last 3)0.170.18
threat rate (last 5)0.260.19
venue ppg (last 5)0.400.00