← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, Apr 21, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: B. Dankert
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe win | 46% | 2.10 |
| Hertha win | 30% | 3.34 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.90 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe −0.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| Hertha −0.25 | 47% | 2.07 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under | 34% | 2.90 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Marco Thiede · Karlsruhe |
| 23' | ⚽ | Haris Tabaković · Hertha |
| 45' | ⚽ | Igor Matanović · Karlsruhe |
| 58' | 🟨 | Leon Jensen · Karlsruhe |
| 65' | 🟨 | Dženis Burnić · Karlsruhe |
| 77' | ⚽ | Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe |
| 87' | ⚽ (pen) | Haris Tabaković · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Patrick Drewes · Karlsruhe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 9 | Shots | 18 |
| 5 | On target | 7 |
| 3 | Corners | 7 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| venue | BBBank Wildpark |
| coach days | 1541.00 | 386.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.20 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.91 | 1.99 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.45 |
| elo | 1550.93 | 1577.77 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 19.86 | 16.53 |
| eye test v1 | 1.03 | 0.70 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.39 | -0.01 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 61.60 | 55.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.25 | 1.51 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.79 | 0.71 |
| league points | 46.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 82.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.20 | 47.60 |
| rest days | 8.02 | 8.79 |
| scorer concentration | 0.23 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 1.57 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | -2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.40 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.04 | 0.33 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.80 | 5.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 6.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.80 |
| squad age | 28.16 | 25.33 |
| state index | 0.59 | 0.40 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.86 | -0.34 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |