← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Fri, Apr 19, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Exner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 42% | 2.25 |
| Nurnberg win | 32% | 3.09 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.78 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg +0.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| SC Paderborn 07 +0.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 1.56 |
| Under | 38% | 2.55 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 10' | ⚽ | Adriano Grimaldi · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 17' | 🟨 | Sirlord Conteh · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 54' | 🟨 | Pelle Boevink · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 61' | ⚽ | Visar Musliu · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 79' | 🟨 | Filip Bilbija · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 80' | 🟨 | Jens Castrop · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jannes Horn · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Joseph Hungbo · Nurnberg |
| 90' | 🟨 | Koen Kostons · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 16 | Shots | 12 |
| 6 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.32 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.34 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.53 | 0.69 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.60 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 323.00 | 1023.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -5.00 | 4.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.00 | 2.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 3.40 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.18 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1439.57 | 1491.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.99 | -28.66 |
| eye test v1 | -0.45 | 0.42 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | 0.28 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 55.60 | 60.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.65 | 0.55 |
| league points | 40.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 6.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 80.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 39.40 | 50.80 |
| rest days | 5.92 | 6.23 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.33 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -7.40 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.60 | 15.40 |
| skill v1 | -0.18 | 0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 4.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.80 |
| squad age | 24.47 | 26.03 |
| state index | -0.94 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -0.26 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |