← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, Apr 14, 11:30 AM UTC · ref: R. Kampka
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 47% | 2.05 |
| Magdeburg win | 29% | 3.50 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.09 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV +0.25 | 54% | 1.81 |
| Magdeburg +0.25 | 46% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 69% | 1.39 |
| Under | 31% | 3.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 24' | 🟥 | Guilherme Ramos · Hamburger SV |
| 26' | ⚽ (pen) | Mo El Hankouri · Magdeburg |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jan Luca Schuler · Magdeburg |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Mo El Hankouri · Magdeburg |
| 68' | ⚽ | Sebastian Schonlau · Hamburger SV |
| 72' | 🟨 | Amara Condé · Magdeburg |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jonas Meffert · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 23 |
| 8 | On target | 8 |
| 3 | Corners | 9 |
| 12 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Magdeburg | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.25 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.61 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| venue | MDCC-Arena |
| coach days | 1168.00 | 73.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.80 | 3.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 3.39 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.42 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1440.35 | 1594.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -40.86 | -19.40 |
| eye test v1 | -0.57 | -0.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.16 | 0.15 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 48.90 | 54.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| league points | 33.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 85.20 | 83.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.40 | 62.00 |
| rest days | 8.02 | 8.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.14 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.70 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -5.20 | 5.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 10.00 | 14.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.47 | 1.34 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 3.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.10 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 27.51 | 25.37 |
| state index | -1.12 | 0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.53 | 0.96 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.19 | 0.25 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |