← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Apr 13, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Fritz
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 59% | 1.63 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.40 |
| Nurnberg win | 19% | 5.25 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg −1 | 53% | 1.86 |
| FC Schalke 04 −1 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.54 |
| Under | 37% | 2.61 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 13' | 🟨 | Sebastian Andersson · Nurnberg |
| 42' | 🟨 | Can Uzun · Nurnberg |
| 42' | ⚽ | Kenan Karaman · FC Schalke 04 |
| 44' | 🟨 | Paul Seguin · FC Schalke 04 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Derry Murkin · FC Schalke 04 |
| 49' | 🟨 | Keke Topp · FC Schalke 04 |
| 66' | 🟨 | Finn Jeltsch · Nurnberg |
| 85' | 🟨 | Florian Flick · Nurnberg |
| 86' | ⚽ | Paul Seguin · FC Schalke 04 |
| 88' | 🟨 | Darko Churlinov · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 19 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 7 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 14 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.41 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.35 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.60 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 2.20 |
| venue | Arena AufSchalke |
| coach days | 195.00 | 317.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.13 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -4.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.04 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.56 | 0.35 |
| elo | 1488.11 | 1450.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.62 | -1.18 |
| eye test v1 | 0.36 | -0.62 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.11 | -0.12 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.00 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| league points | 32.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 72.20 | 82.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.00 | 38.00 |
| rest days | 6.29 | 7.31 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.36 |
| season ppg | 1.10 | 1.38 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -6.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 9.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.84 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.40 | 3.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.20 |
| squad age | 28.07 | 24.45 |
| state index | -0.01 | -0.60 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.26 | -0.25 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.31 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.19 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |