← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Apr 13, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: M. Burda
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 68% | 1.41 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.35 |
| VfL Osnabruck win | 13% | 7.04 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Holstein Kiel −1.25 | 53% | 1.85 |
| VfL Osnabruck −1.25 | 47% | 2.06 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 68% | 1.42 |
| Under | 32% | 2.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 12 | Shots | 7 |
| 7 | On target | 2 |
| 4 | Corners | 5 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand