← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Apr 13, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: A. Sather
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 42% | 2.33 |
| Karlsruhe win | 33% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.85 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe −0.25 | 52% | 1.86 |
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.25 | 48% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 63% | 1.53 |
| Under | 37% | 2.62 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 20' | ⚽ | Sirlord Conteh · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 25' | ⚽ | Igor Matanović · Karlsruhe |
| 28' | 🟨 | Marco Pledl · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Paul Nebel · Karlsruhe |
| 57' | 🟨 | Marcel Hoffmeier · SC Paderborn 07 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 5 |
| 8 | Corners | 2 |
| 14 | Fouls | 3 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Karlsruhe |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.43 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.45 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.00 |
| venue | Home Deluxe Arena |
| coach days | 1017.00 | 1533.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 6.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.80 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.37 | 2.91 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.03 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.55 |
| elo | 1491.13 | 1550.93 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -31.57 | 36.25 |
| eye test v1 | 0.59 | 1.30 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.40 | 0.21 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 65.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 2.27 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.51 | 0.78 |
| league points | 39.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.00 | 77.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 50.60 | 44.60 |
| rest days | 7.77 | 6.69 |
| scorer concentration | 0.15 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.55 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 3.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.20 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.24 | -0.27 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.90 | 5.90 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 7.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 6.80 |
| squad age | 25.32 | 27.74 |
| state index | -0.52 | 0.83 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.45 | -1.24 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |