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Hertha 4–0 Hansa Rostock

← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Fri, Apr 12, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Braun

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hertha win53%1.83
Draw24%4.06
Hansa Rostock win23%4.33

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hansa Rostock −0.7553%1.86
Hertha −0.7547%2.05

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over61%1.58
Under39%2.49

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

18'⚽Pálko Dárdai · Hertha
31'⚽ (pen)Fabian Reese · Hertha
45'🟨Deyovaisio Zeefuik · Hertha
59'⚽Pálko Dárdai · Hertha
63'🟨Svante Ingelsson · Hansa Rostock
82'🟨Sebastian Vasiliadis · Hansa Rostock
86'⚽Haris Tabaković · Hertha

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
16Shots12
8On target3
5Corners1
8Fouls12
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHerthaHansa Rostock
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.370.28
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.420.23
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.380.21
blown lead rate (last 20)0.250.05
box share (last 5)0.650.71
cards avg (last 5)1.802.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueOlympiastadion Berlin
coach days377.00408.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.190.07
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.20-2.60
corners against avg (last 5)5.606.20
corners for avg (last 5)5.403.60
corners volatility (last 10)2.501.96
defensive leak (last 5)0.140.09
dominance (last 5)0.420.48
elo1569.511409.94
elo momentum (last 5)6.4211.03
eye test v10.66-0.56
eye trend v10.270.08
first sub minute (last 10)53.8064.00
form points (last 5)8.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.40-0.20
goals against avg (last 5)2.201.20
goals for avg (last 5)2.601.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.451.05
h2 goals (last 10)1.100.80
h2h win rate (last 5)0.300.70
ht lead rate (last 20)0.550.10
keeper form v10.680.75
league points44.0037.00
league rank7.0011.00
matches since blank3.001.00
matches since clean sheet11.002.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.6078.40
possession avg (last 5)43.0049.60
rest days7.007.00
scorer concentration0.310.18
season ppg1.521.23
shot diff avg (last 5)-3.60-1.00
shots for avg (last 5)12.0012.80
skill v1-0.110.12
sot against avg (last 5)5.405.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.403.20
sot for avg (last 3)7.003.33
sot for avg (last 5)5.602.80
squad age25.1428.01
state index0.16-0.25
sterile dominance v1-0.72-0.13
threat rate (last 10)0.300.27
threat rate (last 3)0.360.28
threat rate (last 5)0.310.27
venue ppg (last 5)1.600.80