← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Apr 6, 06:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Bacher
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 38% | 2.59 |
| Karlsruhe win | 34% | 2.88 |
| Draw | 28% | 3.45 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 +0 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Karlsruhe +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 53% | 1.85 |
| Under | 47% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Marcel Franke · Karlsruhe |
| 18' | 🟨 | Marcel Franke · Karlsruhe |
| 24' | 🟨 | Hauke Wahl · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 37' | ⚽ | Jackson Irvine · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 69' | ⚽ | Paul Nebel · Karlsruhe |
| 77' | 🟨 | Hauke Wahl · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 77' | 🟥 | Hauke Wahl · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 79' | 🟨 | Jérôme Gondorf · Karlsruhe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Patrick Drewes · Karlsruhe |
| 90' | 🟨 | Lars Stindl · Karlsruhe |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
| 5 | On target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 6 | Fouls | 1 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Karlsruhe | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.47 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.40 |
| venue | BBBank Wildpark |
| 1.20 |
| coach days | 1526.00 | 492.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.19 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 3.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.80 | 2.97 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.01 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.55 | 0.61 |
| elo | 1539.11 | 1663.16 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 42.15 | 13.34 |
| eye test v1 | 1.43 | 0.29 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.19 | -0.62 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 66.60 | 68.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 2.27 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.65 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.78 | 0.68 |
| league points | 42.00 | 60.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.40 | 86.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 48.80 | 56.80 |
| rest days | 6.29 | 6.29 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.14 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 3.40 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.20 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | 1.28 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 2.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.70 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 7.00 | 4.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 7.00 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 27.62 | 27.28 |
| state index | 1.02 | 0.79 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.73 | 0.82 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.80 |