← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Apr 6, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: D. Aytekin
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 53% | 1.80 |
| Draw | 24% | 4.09 |
| Kaiserslautern win | 23% | 4.26 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Kaiserslautern −0.75 | 51% | 1.89 |
| Hamburger SV −0.75 | 49% | 2.02 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 1.56 |
| Under | 38% | 2.54 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 34' | ⚽ | László Bénes · Hamburger SV |
| 45' | ⚽ | Ragnar Ache · Kaiserslautern |
| 57' | 🟨 | Almamy Touré · Kaiserslautern |
| 60' | ⚽ | Łukasz Poręba · Hamburger SV |
| 73' | 🟨 | Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 15 | Shots | 20 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 12 | Fouls | 11 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.35 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.61 | 0.74 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| 1.60 |
| coach days | 65.00 | 65.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 3.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.60 | 7.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.72 | 2.67 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.58 |
| elo | 1590.50 | 1420.32 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.13 | 2.53 |
| eye test v1 | 0.19 | 0.50 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.30 | -0.04 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.90 | 60.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.26 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.63 |
| league points | 48.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.80 | 76.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 47.80 |
| rest days | 5.98 | 6.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| season ppg | 1.66 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 3.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 14.60 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | 1.24 | -0.15 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.90 | 4.50 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.40 |
| squad age | 25.52 | 27.39 |
| state index | 0.23 | -0.39 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.77 | -0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |