← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Apr 6, 11:00 AM UTC · ref: R. Hempel
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 46% | 2.10 |
| Nurnberg win | 28% | 3.55 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.70 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel +0.25 | 53% | 1.81 |
| Nurnberg +0.25 | 47% | 2.10 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.62 |
| Under | 41% | 2.41 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 5' | 🟨 | Joseph Hungbo · Nurnberg |
| 12' | 🟨 | Joseph Hungbo · Nurnberg |
| 12' | 🟥 | Joseph Hungbo · Nurnberg |
| 20' | ⚽ | Marko Ivezić · Holstein Kiel |
| 30' | 🟨 | Alexander Bernhardsson · Holstein Kiel |
| 34' | ⚽ | Shuto Machino · Holstein Kiel |
| 42' | 🟨 | Jens Castrop · Nurnberg |
| 43' | ⚽ | Alexander Bernhardsson · Holstein Kiel |
| 45' | 🟨 | Jan Gyamerah · Nurnberg |
| 79' | ⚽ | Nicolai Remberg · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 3 |
| 6 | Shots | 19 |
| 1 | On target | 7 |
| 4 | Corners | 9 |
| 7 | Fouls | 11 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.35 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.65 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.20 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 310.00 | 918.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.16 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -6.20 | 1.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 8.20 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 6.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.41 | 2.04 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1465.17 | 1601.34 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.00 | 42.96 |
| eye test v1 | -0.67 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.00 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 56.60 | 59.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.76 |
| league points | 40.00 | 56.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.40 | 84.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 38.40 | 57.60 |
| rest days | 6.65 | 6.96 |
| scorer concentration | 0.36 | 0.15 |
| season ppg | 1.43 | 1.93 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -6.40 | 2.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 8.60 | 14.00 |
| skill v1 | -0.42 | 1.16 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.70 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.33 | 5.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 23.94 | 26.09 |
| state index | -0.30 | 0.84 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.13 | 0.66 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |