← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Fri, Apr 5, 04:30 PM UTC · ref: M. Petersen
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 46% | 2.11 |
| Hertha win | 29% | 3.31 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.90 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Hertha −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 65% | 1.49 |
| Under | 35% | 2.74 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Raphael Obermair · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 17' | ⚽ | Aymen Barkok · Hertha |
| 59' | ⚽ | Visar Musliu · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 62' | 🟨 | Filip Bilbija · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 84' | ⚽ | Bilal Hussein · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ibrahim Maza · Hertha |
| 90' | ⚽ | Haris Tabaković · Hertha |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 19 | Shots | 10 |
| 8 | On target | 4 |
| 9 | Corners | 3 |
| 4 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Hertha |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.33 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.33 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.64 | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| venue | Home Deluxe Arena |
| coach days | 1009.00 | 370.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 7.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.26 | 2.80 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.46 |
| elo | 1501.18 | 1559.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.24 | -6.64 |
| eye test v1 | 0.29 | 0.49 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.17 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 59.10 | 53.60 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.42 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.55 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.56 | 0.70 |
| league points | 39.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 78.60 | 80.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 51.80 | 44.00 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 5.88 |
| scorer concentration | 0.16 | 0.31 |
| season ppg | 1.39 | 1.46 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.60 | 12.40 |
| skill v1 | 0.28 | -0.06 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.00 | 5.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 25.93 | 24.96 |
| state index | -0.23 | 0.01 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.20 | -0.73 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.34 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |