← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Mar 30, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Sather
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 56% | 1.70 |
| Draw | 22% | 4.22 |
| Nurnberg win | 21% | 4.74 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha −0.75 | 52% | 1.88 |
| Nurnberg −0.75 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 61% | 1.56 |
| Under | 39% | 2.53 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 7' | 🟨 | Jonjoe Kenny · Hertha |
| 14' | ⚽ | Can Uzun · Nurnberg |
| 16' | 🟨 | Jannes Horn · Nurnberg |
| 33' | ⚽ | Lukas Schleimer · Nurnberg |
| 44' | ⚽ | Marten Winkler · Hertha |
| 46' | ⚽ | Can Uzun · Nurnberg |
| 54' | ⚽ | Haris Tabaković · Hertha |
| 56' | ⚽ (pen) | Haris Tabaković · Hertha |
| 63' | 🟨 | Marten Winkler · Hertha |
| 80' | 🟨 | Florian Niederlechner · Hertha |
| 83' | 🟨 | Pálko Dárdai · Hertha |
| 90' | 🟨 | Taylan Duman · Nurnberg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 18 | Shots | 17 |
| 7 | On target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 7 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | Nurnberg |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.31 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.38 | 0.28 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.71 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.80 |
| venue | Olympiastadion Berlin |
| coach days | 364.00 | 303.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | -5.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 9.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.40 | 3.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.84 | 3.33 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.29 |
| elo | 1563.84 | 1460.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.62 | -0.34 |
| eye test v1 | 0.68 | -1.19 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.02 | -0.05 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.60 | 57.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.49 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.66 | 0.70 |
| league points | 40.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 42.80 | 40.20 |
| rest days | 13.29 | 14.31 |
| scorer concentration | 0.30 | 0.33 |
| season ppg | 1.48 | 1.44 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -8.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.20 | 6.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.23 | -0.39 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.67 | 2.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.60 | 2.00 |
| squad age | 24.38 | 24.77 |
| state index | 0.21 | -0.38 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -1.01 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.28 | 0.22 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.32 | 0.20 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.34 | 0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |