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Karlsruhe 7–0 Magdeburg

← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, Mar 17, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Storks

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe win47%2.12
Magdeburg win29%3.35
Draw25%3.87

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Karlsruhe −0.2553%1.85
Magdeburg −0.2547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over63%1.52
Under37%2.64

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

7'⚽Marcel Franke · Karlsruhe
13'⚽Budu Zivzivadze · Karlsruhe
25'⚽Budu Zivzivadze · Karlsruhe
29'🟨Leon Bell Bell · Magdeburg
40'⚽Paul Nebel · Karlsruhe
50'⚽Marcel Beifus · Karlsruhe
51'⚽Igor Matanović · Karlsruhe
90'⚽ (pen)Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

4Half-time score0
24Shots8
11On target2
9Corners4
12Fouls9
0Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKarlsruheMagdeburg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.400.41
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.490.25
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.420.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.15
box share (last 5)0.680.57
cards avg (last 5)2.001.80
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBBBank Wildpark
coach days1506.001140.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d2.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.180.09
corner diff avg (last 5)1.60-2.20
corners against avg (last 5)5.406.40
corners for avg (last 5)7.004.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.533.41
defensive leak (last 5)0.090.06
dominance (last 5)0.530.45
elo1523.591468.88
elo momentum (last 5)9.1014.81
eye test v10.65-0.04
eye trend v10.06-0.61
first sub minute (last 10)67.6052.40
form points (last 5)7.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)1.000.40
goals against avg (last 5)1.000.80
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.510.99
h2 goals (last 10)1.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.400.20
keeper form v10.730.78
league points38.0031.00
league rank10.0016.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet1.001.00
matches since win1.002.00
pass acc avg (last 5)81.0086.80
possession avg (last 5)54.2062.20
rest days8.027.71
scorer concentration0.230.14
season ppg1.461.19
shot diff avg (last 5)1.40-2.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.2011.40
skill v10.651.67
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)5.405.00
sot for avg (last 3)6.003.00
sot for avg (last 5)5.403.80
squad age28.9927.41
state index0.40-0.06
sterile dominance v10.311.57
threat rate (last 10)0.290.20
threat rate (last 3)0.290.17
threat rate (last 5)0.260.18
venue ppg (last 5)2.201.00