← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, Mar 17, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 40% | 2.38 |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 34% | 2.99 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.71 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 −0.25 | 53% | 1.86 |
| Hertha −0.25 | 47% | 2.05 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.61 |
| Under | 40% | 2.42 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2' | ⚽ | Haris Tabaković · Hertha |
| 5' | ⚽ | Simon Terodde · FC Schalke 04 |
| 13' | ⚽ | Haris Tabaković · Hertha |
| 26' | ⚽ | Simon Terodde · FC Schalke 04 |
| 39' | ⚽ | Marten Winkler · Hertha |
| 56' | ⚽ | Marten Winkler · Hertha |
| 75' | ⚽ | Florian Niederlechner · Hertha |
| 79' | 🟨 | Simon Terodde · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 3 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 17 | Shots | 12 |
| 10 | On target | 7 |
| 8 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 7 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.29 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |
| venue | Olympiastadion Berlin |
| coach days | 351.00 | 168.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.11 | 0.10 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.80 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.70 | 3.02 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| elo | 1551.90 | 1497.39 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.28 | 2.58 |
| eye test v1 | 0.43 | -0.10 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.54 | -0.06 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 51.00 | 54.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.64 | 0.67 |
| league points | 37.00 | 30.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.60 | 74.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 41.40 | 42.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.29 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.15 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -1.40 | -1.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.40 | 12.60 |
| skill v1 | -0.30 | -0.67 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.20 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 3.00 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 3.80 |
| squad age | 24.71 | 27.44 |
| state index | -0.07 | -0.20 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.87 | -1.03 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.36 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |