← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Mar 16, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: F. Willenborg
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 54% | 1.81 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.83 |
| Nurnberg win | 21% | 4.75 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Nurnberg +0.75 | 52% | 1.87 |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 +0.75 | 48% | 2.04 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 54% | 1.80 |
| Under | 46% | 2.09 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 44' | ⚽ | Johannes Eggestein · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 47' | 🟨 | Elias Saad · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 62' | ⚽ | Marcel Hartel · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
| 72' | 🟨 | Adam Dźwigała · FC St. Pauli 1910 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 2 | Shots | 16 |
| 1 | On target | 4 |
| 1 | Corners | 11 |
| 7 | Fouls | 10 |
| 0 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Nurnberg | FC St. Pauli 1910 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | — | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | — | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | — | 0.42 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | — | 0.72 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 1.60 |
| venue | Max-Morlock-Stadion |
| coach days | 289.00 | 471.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.17 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -2.00 | 0.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.20 | 4.20 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 3.26 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.12 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.54 |
| elo | 1470.90 | 1648.51 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 10.81 | -12.37 |
| eye test v1 | -0.56 | 0.84 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.17 | -0.63 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 58.00 | 66.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.71 | 0.66 |
| league points | 39.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.60 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 43.80 | 53.40 |
| rest days | 6.69 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.33 | 0.24 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 2.08 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.40 | 1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 9.40 | 10.80 |
| skill v1 | -0.06 | 0.91 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 3.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 3.20 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.20 | 6.00 |
| squad age | 24.50 | 27.31 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.32 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.08 | 0.41 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.22 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.40 |