← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Mar 9, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: R. Kampka
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 win | 44% | 2.20 |
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 30% | 3.27 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 −0.25 | 51% | 1.92 |
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.25 | 49% | 1.99 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 58% | 1.68 |
| Under | 42% | 2.27 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 32' | ⚽ (pen) | Kenan Karaman · FC Schalke 04 |
| 40' | 🟨 | Tomáš Kalas · FC Schalke 04 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Ilyas Ansah · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 46' | 🟨 | Paul Seguin · FC Schalke 04 |
| 50' | ⚽ | Bryan Lasme · FC Schalke 04 |
| 60' | ⚽ | Aaron Zehnter · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 78' | ⚽ (pen) | David Kinsombi · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 86' | ⚽ | Sebastian Klaas · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Keke Topp · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 17 | Shots | 15 |
| 5 | On target | 6 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 17 | Fouls | 8 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | SC Paderborn 07 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.27 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.32 | 0.28 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.63 | 0.66 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Arena AufSchalke |
| 2.00 |
| coach days | 160.00 | 982.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.15 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.99 | 3.37 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1498.50 | 1519.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 9.37 | 4.33 |
| eye test v1 | -0.13 | -0.31 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.41 | -0.13 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.10 | 54.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.43 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.70 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.65 |
| league points | 29.00 | 38.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 76.80 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.00 | 53.60 |
| rest days | 7.77 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.52 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 3.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 12.20 |
| skill v1 | -0.25 | 0.59 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.50 | 4.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.67 | 3.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 3.80 | 3.40 |
| squad age | 28.62 | 25.78 |
| state index | 0.15 | 0.08 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.40 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.23 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |