← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, Mar 3, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: R. Hempel
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 67% | 1.46 |
| Draw | 18% | 5.50 |
| VfL Osnabruck win | 15% | 6.50 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV −1.25 | 51% | 1.93 |
| VfL Osnabruck −1.25 | 49% | 1.98 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 71% | 1.36 |
| Under | 29% | 3.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 6' | ⚽ | Lukas Kunze · VfL Osnabruck |
| 26' | 🟨 | Ludovit Reis · Hamburger SV |
| 45' | 🟨 | Maxwell Gyamfi · VfL Osnabruck |
| 45' | ⚽ (pen) | Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV |
| 47' | 🟨 | Immanuel Pherai · VfL Osnabruck |
| 63' | 🟨 | Florian Kleinhansl · VfL Osnabruck |
| 65' | 🟨 | Jean-Luc Dompé · VfL Osnabruck |
| 76' | 🟨 | Maxwell Gyamfi · VfL Osnabruck |
| 76' | 🟥 | Maxwell Gyamfi · VfL Osnabruck |
| 80' | 🟨 | Łukasz Poręba · Hamburger SV |
| 82' | 🟨 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 13 | Shots | 3 |
| 3 | On target | 2 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 16 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hamburger SV | VfL Osnabruck |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.30 | 0.34 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.37 | 0.30 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.72 | 0.64 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.00 |
| venue | Volksparkstadion |
| Michaël Cuisance · Hamburger SV |
| 89' | ⚽ (pen) | Michaël Cuisance · VfL Osnabruck |
| 1.80 |
| coach days | 31.00 | 123.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.40 | 5.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.02 | 3.43 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.19 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.57 |
| elo | 1614.09 | 1322.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.56 | 8.01 |
| eye test v1 | 0.84 | 0.26 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.19 | 0.36 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 60.70 | 57.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.40 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.10 |
| keeper form v1 | — | 0.70 |
| league points | 44.00 | 15.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 20.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 83.80 | 80.80 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.80 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 0.60 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 16.00 | 16.40 |
| skill v1 | 1.19 | 0.84 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.60 | 4.20 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.30 | 3.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.00 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.57 | 27.18 |
| state index | 0.30 | -0.55 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.55 | 0.31 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.25 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.40 |