← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Fri, Mar 1, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: D. Siebert
The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market
“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.
Who wins? (90 minutes)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC St. Pauli 1910 win | 46% | 2.13 |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 27% | 3.63 |
| Draw | 27% | 3.75 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Asian handicap
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| FC Schalke 04 +0.5 | 54% | 1.80 |
| FC St. Pauli 1910 +0.5 | 46% | 2.12 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Will there be 3 or more goals?
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|
| Over | 50% | 1.93 |
| Under | 50% | 1.96 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
Timeline
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in
Match stats
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 14 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 4 |
| 6 | Corners | 4 |
| 14 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
Pre-match form
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand