← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Fri, Mar 1, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: B. Dankert
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha win | 37% | 2.64 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 37% | 2.63 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.75 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hertha +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
| Holstein Kiel +0 | 50% | 1.95 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 60% | 1.60 |
| Under | 40% | 2.45 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 17' | ⚽ | Haris Tabaković · Hertha |
| 21' | 🟨 | Aymen Barkok · Hertha |
| 45' | ⚽ | Haris Tabaković · Hertha |
| 54' | 🟨 | Philipp Sander · Holstein Kiel |
| 65' | 🟨 | Fabian Reese · Hertha |
| 69' | 🟨 | Joshua Mees · Holstein Kiel |
| 73' | 🟨 | Patrick Erras · Holstein Kiel |
| 81' | ⚽ | Finn Porath · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marten Winkler · Hertha |
| 90' | ⚽ (pen) | Timo Becker · Holstein Kiel |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 11 | Shots | 15 |
| 7 | On target | 3 |
| 5 | Corners | 5 |
| 10 | Fouls | 9 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Hertha | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.41 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.36 | 0.38 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.74 | 0.73 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 2.60 |
| venue | Olympiastadion Berlin |
| coach days | 335.00 | 882.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | -1.00 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 5.60 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 3.27 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.10 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.48 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1563.08 | 1558.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -15.15 | 9.81 |
| eye test v1 | 0.49 | 0.12 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.27 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.10 | 58.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.69 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.65 | 0.50 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.70 | 0.72 |
| league points | 36.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 6.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 80.00 | 77.20 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 46.60 | 49.20 |
| rest days | 6.23 | 7.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.25 | 0.17 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.79 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | -1.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.80 | 13.00 |
| skill v1 | 0.07 | -0.01 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.00 | 5.70 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 6.00 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 4.40 |
| squad age | 25.12 | 25.87 |
| state index | -0.07 | 0.29 |
| sterile dominance v1 | -0.44 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.36 | 0.27 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |