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Kaiserslautern 0–4 Karlsruhe

← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Feb 24, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: T. Welz

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kaiserslautern win44%2.19
Karlsruhe win30%3.33
Draw26%3.66

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Kaiserslautern −0.2552%1.90
Karlsruhe −0.2548%2.01

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.74
Under44%2.20

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

22'🟨Nicolai Rapp · Karlsruhe
28'🟨Kevin Kraus · Kaiserslautern
49'🟨Filip Kaloč · Kaiserslautern
51'⚽Marvin Wanitzek · Karlsruhe
58'⚽Igor Matanović · Karlsruhe
81'⚽Paul Nebel · Karlsruhe
90'🟨Jan Elvedi · Kaiserslautern
90'⚽Budu Zivzivadze · Karlsruhe

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

0Half-time score0
8Shots8
4On target6
6Corners4
8Fouls13
3Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricKaiserslauternKarlsruhe
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.240.36
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.200.35
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.260.34
blown lead rate (last 20)0.300.20
box share (last 5)0.610.71
cards avg (last 5)1.601.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueFritz-Walter-Stadion
coach days23.001484.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.00
congestion 21d4.002.00
conversion (last 5)0.100.16
corner diff avg (last 5)1.601.20
corners against avg (last 5)3.405.00
corners for avg (last 5)5.006.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.302.51
defensive leak (last 5)0.170.14
dominance (last 5)0.590.47
elo1417.791496.96
elo momentum (last 5)-0.87-2.76
eye test v1-0.150.15
eye trend v10.11-0.50
first sub minute (last 10)57.3065.40
form points (last 5)4.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.000.00
goals against avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals for avg (last 5)1.602.00
goals volatility (last 10)1.101.17
h2 goals (last 10)0.301.30
h2h win rate (last 5)0.600.40
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.40
keeper form v10.630.65
league points25.0032.00
league rank17.0011.00
matches since blank5.001.00
matches since clean sheet20.0013.00
matches since win4.003.00
pass acc avg (last 5)70.6080.60
possession avg (last 5)42.6052.40
rest days5.986.69
scorer concentration0.300.19
season ppg1.041.39
shot diff avg (last 5)3.80-2.20
shots for avg (last 5)14.6013.00
skill v1-1.010.50
sot against avg (last 5)4.406.20
sot for avg (last 10)3.105.40
sot for avg (last 3)2.674.33
sot for avg (last 5)3.604.40
squad age26.9028.62
state index-0.49-0.26
sterile dominance v1-1.380.23
threat rate (last 10)0.310.30
threat rate (last 3)0.350.21
threat rate (last 5)0.340.25
venue ppg (last 5)0.601.00