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SV Wehen 1–2 SC Paderborn 07

← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Fri, Feb 23, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Lechner

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SC Paderborn 07 win41%2.37
SV Wehen win33%3.00
Draw26%3.67

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
SV Wehen +0.2553%1.85
SC Paderborn 07 +0.2547%2.06

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over58%1.65
Under42%2.33

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

30'⚽Franko Kovačević · SV Wehen
39'⚽Koen Kostons · SC Paderborn 07
54'🟨Marcus Mathisen · SV Wehen
54'🟨Kai Klefisch · SC Paderborn 07
82'⚽Filip Bilbija · SC Paderborn 07
84'🟨Raphael Obermair · SC Paderborn 07
90'🟨Bjarke Jacobsen · SV Wehen

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score1
5Shots16
1On target4
2Corners7
11Fouls7
2Yellow cards2
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricSV WehenSC Paderborn 07
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.310.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.340.28
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.320.28
blown lead rate (last 20)0.100.10
box share (last 5)0.560.70
cards avg (last 5)2.202.60
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueBRITA-Arena
coach days844.00967.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.050.10
congestion 21d3.003.00
conversion (last 5)0.080.12
corner diff avg (last 5)-6.00-1.60
corners against avg (last 5)8.406.60
corners for avg (last 5)2.405.00
corners volatility (last 10)1.482.79
defensive leak (last 5)0.100.14
dominance (last 5)0.500.44
elo1428.511513.41
elo momentum (last 5)8.17-17.83
eye test v10.05-0.41
eye trend v10.10-0.60
first sub minute (last 10)57.2050.90
form points (last 5)5.007.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.00-0.60
goals against avg (last 5)1.201.80
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.20
goals volatility (last 10)1.031.35
h2 goals (last 10)1.000.80
ht lead rate (last 20)0.300.40
keeper form v10.730.64
league points27.0034.00
league rank14.008.00
matches since blank0.000.00
matches since clean sheet11.003.00
matches since win3.001.00
pass acc avg (last 5)76.4080.80
possession avg (last 5)45.2055.60
rest days6.236.23
scorer concentration0.300.19
season ppg1.171.48
shot diff avg (last 5)0.60-2.60
shots for avg (last 5)13.4010.80
skill v1-0.330.72
sot against avg (last 5)5.003.80
sot for avg (last 10)3.905.20
sot for avg (last 3)4.332.67
sot for avg (last 5)4.203.40
squad age27.0025.28
state index-0.17-0.36
sterile dominance v1-0.640.81
threat rate (last 10)0.270.25
threat rate (last 3)0.260.17
threat rate (last 5)0.300.20
venue ppg (last 5)2.001.40