← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Feb 17, 12:00 PM UTC · ref: P. Alt
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| SC Paderborn 07 win | 41% | 2.43 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 34% | 2.90 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.81 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −0.25 | 53% | 1.83 |
| SC Paderborn 07 −0.25 | 47% | 2.11 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 62% | 1.55 |
| Under | 38% | 2.56 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 16' | ⚽ | Finn Porath · Holstein Kiel |
| 33' | ⚽ | Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel |
| 39' | 🟨 | Laurin Curda · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 52' | ⚽ | Marvin Schulz · Holstein Kiel |
| 54' | 🟨 | Adriano Grimaldi · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 76' | 🟨 | Marvin Schulz · Holstein Kiel |
| 78' | 🟨 | Lewis Holtby · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Filip Bilbija · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 90' | 🟥 | Martin Ens · SC Paderborn 07 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolai Remberg · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 10 | Shots | 12 |
| 3 | On target | 6 |
| 6 | Corners | 6 |
| 11 | Fouls | 12 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 1 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | SC Paderborn 07 | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.24 | 0.26 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.60 |
| venue | Home Deluxe Arena |
| ⚽ |
| Niklas Niehoff · Holstein Kiel |
| 2.40 |
| coach days | 961.00 | 869.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 6.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 6.20 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.51 | 3.13 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1534.76 | 1546.40 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 12.84 | -7.03 |
| eye test v1 | 0.39 | 0.44 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.73 | -0.83 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 52.20 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.20 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.73 | 0.77 |
| league points | 34.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.00 | 79.40 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 58.00 | 54.80 |
| rest days | 6.69 | 5.98 |
| scorer concentration | 0.19 | 0.21 |
| season ppg | 1.55 | 1.82 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 14.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.98 | 0.55 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 4.60 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.50 | 6.20 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 2.33 | 3.33 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.00 |
| squad age | 25.32 | 25.69 |
| state index | 0.33 | 0.15 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.69 | 0.12 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.21 | 0.28 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |