← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sun, Feb 11, 12:30 PM UTC · ref: A. Aarnink
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel win | 38% | 2.58 |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 36% | 2.74 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.63 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel +0 | 51% | 1.89 |
| FC Schalke 04 +0 | 49% | 2.01 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 57% | 1.67 |
| Under | 43% | 2.30 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 40' | 🟨 | Derry Murkin · FC Schalke 04 |
| 55' | ⚽ | Steven Skrzybski · Holstein Kiel |
| 75' | 🟨 | Joshua Mees · Holstein Kiel |
| 79' | 🟨 | Tobias Mohr · FC Schalke 04 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Yusuf Kabadayi · FC Schalke 04 |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
| 22 | Shots | 7 |
| 6 | On target | 2 |
| 10 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Holstein Kiel | FC Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.39 | 0.37 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.36 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.68 | 0.47 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.20 |
| venue | Holstein-Stadion |
| 3.00 |
| coach days | 863.00 | 133.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | -3.60 | 0.20 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 7.60 | 4.00 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.20 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.87 | 3.31 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.43 | 0.65 |
| elo | 1539.32 | 1494.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.57 | -14.82 |
| eye test v1 | 0.46 | 0.68 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.48 | -0.11 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 57.70 | 52.70 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.30 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| league points | 37.00 | 23.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 79.40 | 79.00 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 52.60 | 55.60 |
| rest days | 8.79 | 8.02 |
| scorer concentration | 0.22 | 0.20 |
| season ppg | 1.76 | 1.10 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -4.00 | 8.20 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 12.80 | 17.20 |
| skill v1 | 0.41 | 0.57 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.00 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 5.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.00 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 26.22 | 28.05 |
| state index | 0.06 | -0.05 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.16 | -0.07 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.28 | 0.33 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |