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Hamburger SV 3–4 Hannover

← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Fri, Feb 9, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Storks

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hamburger SV win56%1.73
Hannover win22%4.70
Draw22%4.36

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hamburger SV −0.7551%1.90
Hannover −0.7549%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over66%1.46
Under34%2.82

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

11'⚽Nicolò Tresoldi · Hannover
21'⚽ (og)Guilherme Ramos · Hannover
24'⚽László Bénes · Hamburger SV
32'⚽Louis Schaub · Hannover
47'⚽Dennis Hadžikadunić · Hamburger SV
78'🟨Dennis Hadžikadunić · Hamburger SV
86'⚽Robert Glatzel · Hamburger SV
88'🟥László Bénes · Hamburger SV
90'🟨Dennis Hadžikadunić · Hamburger SV
90'🟥Dennis Hadžikadunić · Hamburger SV
90'🟨

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

1Half-time score3
17Shots13
3On target4
10Corners7
13Fouls14
2Yellow cards2
2Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHamburger SVHannover
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.440.29
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.520.38
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.440.31
box share (last 5)0.650.66
cards avg (last 5)0.000.00
coach days8.00
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueVolksparkstadion
Cedric Teuchert
· Hannover
90'🟨Håvard Nielsen · Hannover
90'⚽Sebastian Ernst · Hannover
588.00
congestion 21d3.003.00
corner diff avg (last 5)2.400.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.804.60
corners for avg (last 5)7.205.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.312.30
elo1588.891462.54
elo momentum (last 5)4.298.48
eye test v10.900.70
eye trend v1-0.150.68
first sub minute (last 10)63.0060.70
form points (last 5)9.008.00
goal diff avg (last 5)0.600.20
goals against avg (last 5)1.401.60
goals for avg (last 5)2.001.80
goals volatility (last 10)0.571.08
h2h win rate (last 5)0.800.20
keeper form v10.61—
league points37.0031.00
league rank2.005.00
matches since blank20.003.00
matches since clean sheet2.001.00
matches since win0.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)84.0081.20
possession avg (last 5)56.4051.20
rest days5.925.21
scorer concentration0.350.25
season ppg1.851.55
skill v11.040.45
sot against avg (last 5)3.204.00
sot for avg (last 10)6.204.20
sot for avg (last 3)6.336.67
sot for avg (last 5)6.005.40
state index0.40-0.24
sterile dominance v10.61-0.46
threat rate (last 10)0.260.27
threat rate (last 3)0.220.35
threat rate (last 5)0.250.34
venue ppg (last 5)1.800.40