← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Fri, Feb 2, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: F. Lechner
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Magdeburg win | 40% | 2.46 |
| Holstein Kiel win | 34% | 2.88 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.70 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Holstein Kiel −0.25 | 54% | 1.79 |
| Magdeburg −0.25 | 46% | 2.13 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 59% | 1.62 |
| Under | 41% | 2.40 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 18' | 🟨 | Lewis Holtby · Holstein Kiel |
| 25' | 🟨 | Tobias Müller · Magdeburg |
| 27' | ⚽ | Timo Becker · Holstein Kiel |
| 29' | 🟨 | Jean Hugonet · Magdeburg |
| 83' | 🟨 | Timon Weiner · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | 🟨 | Nicolai Remberg · Holstein Kiel |
| 90' | ⚽ | Emir Kuhinja · Magdeburg |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
| 21 | Shots | 8 |
| 9 | On target | 3 |
| 12 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 12 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Magdeburg | Holstein Kiel |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.45 | 0.40 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.39 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.05 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.51 | 0.68 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 3.60 | 1.80 |
| venue | MDCC-Arena |
| coach days | 1096.00 | 854.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.40 | -0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 3.00 | 5.80 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.40 | 5.40 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 3.13 | 3.08 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.09 | 0.08 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.49 | 0.50 |
| elo | 1453.30 | 1540.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.19 | 6.06 |
| eye test v1 | 0.89 | 1.07 |
| eye trend v1 | -0.43 | -0.40 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 54.20 | 59.20 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.16 | 1.33 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.68 | 0.74 |
| league points | 23.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 82.40 | 82.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 61.00 | 57.40 |
| rest days | 5.21 | 5.21 |
| scorer concentration | 0.17 | 0.23 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.80 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 13.60 | 15.80 |
| skill v1 | 1.21 | 1.00 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 3.80 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 5.90 | 6.10 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 4.67 | 5.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.40 |
| squad age | 27.06 | 25.54 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.27 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 1.11 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.20 | 0.26 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |