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Hannover 3–0 Nurnberg

← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Fri, Jan 26, 05:30 PM UTC · ref: P. Schwengers

The betting picturemarket vs our model, market by market

“Market” = what bookmaker prices imply after removing their margin — the world's best guess. “Model” = our simulation. A bet is only interesting when the model sees something meaningfully more likely than the market does (the edge) — it's never about picking the winner.

Who wins? (90 minutes)

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover win52%1.87
Draw25%3.80
Nurnberg win23%4.46

across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Asian handicap

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Hannover −0.552%1.87
Nurnberg −0.548%2.04

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Will there be 3 or more goals?

OutcomeMarket saysBest price
Over56%1.71
Under44%2.23

across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)

Timeline

6'⚽Håvard Nielsen · Hannover
38'⚽Håvard Nielsen · Hannover
74'🟨Can Uzun · Nurnberg
81'🟨Håvard Nielsen · Hannover
85'🟨Andreas Voglsammer · Hannover
90'⚽Cedric Teuchert · Hannover

from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks

The match in numberswhat happened + what each side looked like walking in

Match stats

2Half-time score0
30Shots12
11On target1
7Corners5
14Fouls8
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0

Pre-match form

What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.

MetricHannoverNurnberg
accuracy ratio (last 10)0.300.33
accuracy ratio (last 3)0.300.31
accuracy ratio (last 5)0.270.29
blown lead rate (last 20)0.200.05
box share (last 5)0.610.51
cards avg (last 5)1.401.40
Everything else we hold on this match · 1 more recorded fact — tap to expand
venueHeinz von Heiden-Arena
coach days574.00239.00
comeback rate (last 20)0.000.05
congestion 21d2.001.00
conversion (last 5)0.090.11
corner diff avg (last 5)-0.40-3.60
corners against avg (last 5)4.806.80
corners for avg (last 5)4.403.20
corners volatility (last 10)2.172.91
defensive leak (last 5)0.190.14
dominance (last 5)0.510.38
elo1483.001479.87
elo momentum (last 5)-17.708.50
eye test v1-0.13-0.87
eye trend v10.24-0.24
first sub minute (last 10)61.7058.70
form points (last 5)3.009.00
goal diff avg (last 5)-0.80-0.40
goals against avg (last 5)2.001.40
goals for avg (last 5)1.201.00
goals volatility (last 10)0.971.18
h2 goals (last 10)0.800.90
h2h win rate (last 5)0.500.50
ht lead rate (last 20)0.500.25
keeper form v10.720.75
league points27.0030.00
league rank8.006.00
matches since blank2.001.00
matches since clean sheet6.000.00
matches since win7.000.00
pass acc avg (last 5)80.2078.40
possession avg (last 5)48.4040.00
rest days6.236.23
scorer concentration0.210.26
season ppg1.351.58
shot diff avg (last 5)0.20-5.80
shots for avg (last 5)12.809.20
skill v10.21-0.49
sot against avg (last 5)5.004.40
sot for avg (last 10)3.603.80
sot for avg (last 3)4.002.67
sot for avg (last 5)3.802.40
squad age26.7326.06
state index-0.49-0.04
sterile dominance v1-0.20-0.28
threat rate (last 10)0.240.29
threat rate (last 3)0.270.26
threat rate (last 5)0.280.22
venue ppg (last 5)2.202.40