← 2. Bundesliga 2023 · Sat, Jan 20, 07:30 PM UTC · ref: S. Jablonski
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV win | 39% | 2.54 |
| FC Schalke 04 win | 36% | 2.68 |
| Draw | 25% | 3.83 |
across 3 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Hamburger SV +0 | 52% | 1.90 |
| FC Schalke 04 +0 | 48% | 2.03 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| Outcome | Market says | Best price |
|---|---|---|
| Over | 64% | 1.52 |
| Under | 36% | 2.62 |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 22' | ⚽ | Immanuel Pherai · Hamburger SV |
| 33' | 🟨 | Cedric Brunner · FC Schalke 04 |
| 35' | ⚽ | László Bénes · Hamburger SV |
| 44' | 🟨 | Marcin Kamiński · FC Schalke 04 |
| 60' | 🟨 | Ron Schallenberg · FC Schalke 04 |
| 64' | 🟨 | Jonas Meffert · Hamburger SV |
| 67' | 🟨 | Moritz Heyer · Hamburger SV |
from ESPN event data · goals, cards and shootout kicks
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
| 27 | Shots | 8 |
| 4 | On target | 6 |
| 11 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | FC Schalke 04 | Hamburger SV |
|---|---|---|
| accuracy ratio (last 10) | 0.36 | 0.36 |
| accuracy ratio (last 3) | 0.40 | 0.38 |
| accuracy ratio (last 5) | 0.38 | 0.37 |
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| box share (last 5) | 0.66 | 0.63 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 2.80 |
| venue | Arena AufSchalke |
| 2.80 |
| coach days | 111.00 | 933.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| conversion (last 5) | 0.18 | 0.16 |
| corner diff avg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| corners against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 5.60 |
| corners for avg (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| corners volatility (last 10) | 2.83 | 2.84 |
| defensive leak (last 5) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| dominance (last 5) | 0.62 | 0.49 |
| elo | 1521.78 | 1612.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -2.79 | -14.45 |
| eye test v1 | 0.67 | 0.59 |
| eye trend v1 | 0.05 | -0.30 |
| first sub minute (last 10) | 53.50 | 52.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.63 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| keeper form v1 | 0.63 | 0.68 |
| league points | 20.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 15.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since blank | 8.00 | 20.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| pass acc avg (last 5) | 81.40 | 84.60 |
| possession avg (last 5) | 54.40 | 55.00 |
| rest days | 30.00 | 30.00 |
| scorer concentration | 0.18 | 0.40 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.72 |
| shot diff avg (last 5) | 5.80 | 0.00 |
| shots for avg (last 5) | 15.40 | 13.80 |
| skill v1 | 0.70 | 1.02 |
| sot against avg (last 5) | 4.80 | 4.40 |
| sot for avg (last 10) | 4.70 | 5.60 |
| sot for avg (last 3) | 5.33 | 4.67 |
| sot for avg (last 5) | 5.20 | 5.20 |
| squad age | 29.17 | 25.96 |
| state index | 0.27 | 0.18 |
| sterile dominance v1 | 0.11 | 0.46 |
| threat rate (last 10) | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| threat rate (last 3) | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| threat rate (last 5) | 0.29 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.20 |